主题：Calibrating the Highway Safety Manual for Local Conditions and Development of New Safety Performance Functions for Rural Multilane Highways
主讲人：Prof. Sunanda Dissanayake
邀请方联络人：彭一川 助理教授
时间：2016年6月1日（周三）10:00-11:30
地点：交通运输工程学院103室
主讲人简介：
Dr. Dissanayake is a Full Professor in Civil Engineering with specialization in Transportation Engineering attached to the Kansas State University in the United States. She is also the Graduate Program Director in Civil Engineering at KSU and has more than 24 years of experience in traffic engineering and transportation safety both in the Unites States and internationally. She obtained her Bachelors Degree in Civil Engineering from University of Moratuwa in Sri Lanka, Masters in Transportation Engineering from Asian Institute of Technology in Thailand, and PhD in Civil/Transportation Engineering from University of South Florida. She has successfully completed numerous externally research projects in the area of highway safety and teaches courses in the related topics. Some examples of her previous work include safety issues related to special population groups such as young drivers and older drivers, motorcycle safety, improving seatbelt usage rates and associated benefits, truck crashes and reducing severity, rural highway safety and crash analysis, children’s safety among many others. She has published more than 39 journal publications and has more than 133 presentations/conference proceedings in her credit. In addition to winning highly prestigious Fulbright Scholar Award for her sabbatical, she is currently a member of two journal editorial boards, a member of two TRB committees, and the chair of the Transportation Safety Committee of American Society of Civil Engineers.
主讲内容简介：
Recently introduced Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides models and methodologies for analyzing the safety of various types of highways. Predictive methods in the HSM were developed based on national trends and data from few states throughout the United States. However, these methodologies are of limited use if they are not calibrated for individual jurisdictions or local conditions.
The objective of this study was to analyze the HSM calibration procedures for rural multilane segments and intersections in Kansas. The HSM categorizes rural multilane segments as four-lane divided (4D) and four-lane undivided (4U) segments and rural multilane intersections as three-legged intersections with minor-road stop control (3ST), four-legged intersections with minor-road stop control (4ST), and four-leg signalized intersections (4SG). The number of predicted crashes at each segment was obtained according to the HSM calibration process. Results from calibration of rural segments indicated that the HSM over-predicts fatal and injury crashes by 50% and 65% and under-predicts total crashes by 48% and 64% on rural 4D and 4U segments, respectively. The HSM-given safety performance function (SPF) regression coefficients were then modified to capture variation in crash prediction. The adjusted models for 4D and 4U multilane segments indicated significant improvement in crash prediction for rural Kansas.
Furthermore, Kansas-specific safety performance functions (SPF)s were developed following the HSM recommendations. In order to develop Kansas-specific SPF, Negative Binomial regression was applied to obtain the most suitable model. Several additional variables were considered and tested in the new SPFs, followed by model validation on various sets of locations. The Kansas-specific SPFs are capable of more accurately predicting total and fatal and injury crashes on multilane segments compared to the HSM and the modified HSM models.
In addition to multilane segments, rural intersections on multilane highways were also calibrated according to the HSM methodology. Using crash modification factors for corresponding variables, SPFs were adjusted to obtain final predicted crash frequency at intersections. Obtained calibration factors indicated that the HSM is capable of predicting crashes at intersections on rural multilane sections at satisfactory levels. Findings of this study can be used for improving safety of rural multilane highways in the state.
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