主题：Public Bus Adherence Modelling
主讲人：Qiang Meng（孟强）
时间：2015年6月4日13:30
地点：交通运输工程学院103报告厅
主讲人简介：
Dr. Qiang Meng is a Dean’s Chair and an Associate Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at National University of Singapore. He received his PhD in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology in 2000. His research areas include transportation network modeling and optimization, shipping and intermodal freight transportation analysis, and quantitative risk assessment of transport operations. After joining NUS, he has secured more than S$4.6 million (CNY 21.5 million) research project grants as a principal investigator (PI) or Co-PI. He has published more than 120 articles on the leading SCI/SSCI international journals including Transportation Science, Transportation Research Part B and Risk Analysis. He is an Associate Editor of Journal of Transportation Engineering (ASCE) and Transportation Research Part E, and an Editorial Board Member of Transportation Research Part B, Transportation Research Part C, Journal of Advanced Transportation and Transportmetrica A – Transportation Science. He has been serving the Scientific Committee of the World Conference on Transportation Research (WCTR) Society and East Asia Society for Transportation Studies, and Freight Transportation Planning and Logistics Committee of Transportation Research Board (TRB). He has clinched a number of research awards and prizes, including Dean’s Chair in the Faculty of Engineering at NUS in 2015, the 13th World Conference on Transportation Research (WCTR) Society Prize for the best paper (2013), Best Paper Award for Methodological Development in the 9th EASTS (East Asia Society for Transportation Studies) International Conference (2011), Best Paper Award of AHB40 - Highway Capacity and Quality of Service Committee - in the 90th TRB Annual Meeting (2011) and Singapore MOT (Ministry of Transportation) Minister’s Innovation Award 2009.
主讲内容简介：
In this talk, we deal with the interesting and practical bus headway adherence issue for a given (public) bus route. We first define the random headway adherence ratio (HAR) at a particular bus stop of a specific bus route as the ratio of difference between actual bus headway and scheduled headway with respect to the scheduled headway. We proceed to customize a four-step procedure to estimate a probability distribution that can describe the random HAR at each bus stop of the bus route by using the automatic vehicle location (AVL) data. Our real case studies with 44,025 HAR data show that the 19 existing probability distributions including Lognormal, Gamma, Beta and Wakeby are unable to well fit these HAR data. We thus propose a tailored Wakeby-type distribution. After deriving two fundamental propositions for the tailored Wakeby-type distribution, a tangible L-moment based method to estimate the parameters involved the tailored Wakeby distribution is presented. The tailored Wakeby-type distributions can meet our expectation via our real case studies. Finally, applications of the tailored Wakeby-type distribution derived for the random HAR are conducted.
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